Can health taxes help sustain Africa's HIV response and research agenda? Potential fiscal space, implementation risks, and equity considerations.

Sub-Saharan Africa's HIV response is under acute financing stress as external assistance becomes less predictable, debt service costs displace public expenditure, and governments face growing demands on health and community systems. Health taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages are increasingly proposed as one instrument of domestic resource mobilisation, but their contribution to HIV sustainability is contested, and their design space in African contexts is imperfectly characterised. The present paper asks under what conditions health taxes can contribute to sustaining HIV services and African-led research without worsening inequity or fragmenting public finance. It combines a critical narrative review, a descriptive analysis of African excise tax indicators, an interpretation of country-level revenue-potential indicators drawn from stochastic frontier benchmark estimates, and four purposive policy cases, including South Africa, Botswana, Kenya, and Zimbabwe. Across 49 sub-Saharan African economies, the median tax-revenue-minus-social-contributions ratio is approximately 11.7% of gross domestic product, with most low-income countries below the 15% state capacity threshold. Among African countries with data, median excise taxes represented 25.2% of the retail price of the most-sold cigarette brand, 14.5% for beer and 5.0% for a comparable carbonated sugary drink. The median overall cigarette tax score was 1.38 on a 0-5 scale. Benchmark effort gaps are heterogeneous across products and countries, indicating that binding constraints differ by product and jurisdiction. The four cases show that outcomes depend jointly on tax structure, administration, enforcement, market response, and revenue governance. Health taxes may contribute to HIV sustainability through additional domestic revenue, reduced exposure to selected HIV-related comorbidities, and HIV-sensitive investment in services, community systems, and African-led research. Their contribution is conditional on accountable public finance, monitoring of unintended effects, and progressive benefit incidence. They cannot substitute for wider tax reform or continued international solidarity.