Assessment of 1-Hour Postload Plasma Glucose, the Metabolic Syndrome, and the Finish Diabetes Risk Score in the Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the 1-hour postload glucose (1h-PG) value of an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the Finish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) in patients with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

A cohort study was conducted in patients at a general hospital in Lima, Perú. An OGTT was performed in subjects with IFG who were followed-up for 7 years for T2DM development. The exposure variables were 1h-PG ≥ 155 mg/dL, MetS, and a FINDRISC ≥ 13 points, and the outcome was the presence of T2DM. The relative risk, confidence interval, and area under the curve (AUROC) were also estimated.

RESULTS

Among 324 subjects with IFG, 218 completed the 7-year follow-up. The mean age was 56.2 ± 11.5 years, 64.0% were woman, and 63.8% were overweight/obese. Of these, 36.8% had 1h-PG ≥ 155 mg/dL and normal glucose tolerance, 66.8% had MetS, and 64.5% had FINDRISC ≥ 13 points. After 7 years, 21.1% of participants developed T2DM, with 68.8% of them who had 1h-PG ≥ 155 mg/dL (P < .001), 62.2% had MetS (P = .013), and 67.9% had FINDRISC ≥ 13 (P = .68). After adjusting by age, sex, and body mass index, the relative risk was 3.52 (1.64-7.54; 95% CI), 1.81 (0.96-3.38; 95% CI), and 1.17 (0.51-2.70; 95% CI) for each exposure variable, respectively. Also, the AUROC was 0.72 (0.60-0.83), 0.63 (0.51-0.75), and 0.51 (0.38-0.63) (P = .01), respectively.

CONCLUSION

By performing an OGTT in patients with IFG, an 1h-PG ≥ 155 mg/dL value may be helpful to predict T2DM at 7 years better than the use of MetS or the FINDRISC.