Magnitude and factors associated with diabetes mellitus among people living with HIV/AIDS in Eastern Africa. Evidence from Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND

The introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has improved survival among people living with HIV (PLHIV) but increased the risk of non-communicable diseases, including diabetes mellitus (DM). In East Africa, estimates of DM prevalence among PLHIV vary widely, and contributing factors are not well defined. This study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of DM and identify associated risk factors among PLHIV in the region.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted following PRISMA 2020 guidelines (PROSPERO: CRD420251129591). Databases including PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, African Journals Online, and Google Scholar were searched for cross-sectional, cohort, and case-control studies reporting DM prevalence or associated factors among PLHIV aged ≥ 16 years in East Africa. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers, and study quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute checklist. A random-effects model using DerSimonian-Laird method was applied to estimate pooled prevalence. Heterogeneity was assessed with Cochran's Q and I², and publication bias was evaluated via funnel plot, Egger's test, and trim-and-fill analysis. Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) were pooled to identify factors associated with DM.

RESULTS

A total of fourteen studies were included. The pooled prevalence of DM was 6.4% (95% CI: 4.3-9.7%; I² = 94.9%). Trim-and-fill analysis did not change the estimate. Significant risk factors included higher education (AOR = 8.56, 95% CI: 3.82-19.17), obesity/overweight (AOR = 6.68, 95% CI: 2.58-17.32), positive family history of diabetes (AOR = 7.60, 95% CI: 3.56-16.22), longer duration of ART (AOR = 4.78, 95% CI: 1.22-18.81), and history of hypertension (AOR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.69-5.27). Male sex and elevated triglycerides were not significantly associated.

CONCLUSION

DM affects one in every 16 PLHIV in East Africa, with modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors identified. Integrating DM screening and preventive strategies into HIV care is critical to reduce cardio-metabolic complications.