Optimizing Budget Allocation for Digital Health Investments Using Metaheuristic Algorithms: A Cost-Impact Analysis for Public Health Systems.

Background

In the era of digital transformation, public health systems increasingly rely on digital technologies to improve accessibility, efficiency, and patient outcomes. However, policymakers face significant challenges in allocating limited resources across competing digital health investments characterized by uncertainty and dynamic impacts.

Methods

This study introduces the Adaptive Impact-Cost Optimization Theory (AICOT), a hybrid framework integrating fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms to optimize digital health investment portfolios. The model defines the Investment Priority Score (IPS) as a function of cost, expected impact, and implementation feasibility, enabling structured evaluation under uncertainty. A fuzzy inference system with centroid-based defuzzification is used to convert qualitative assessments into quantitative scores, while optimization techniques identify optimal portfolios across different fiscal scenarios. The empirical analysis covers 15 OECD countries (2018-2024) using publicly available datasets. Sensitivity analyses assess robustness under inflation, cost shocks, and changing system priorities.

Results

The findings show that blended investment strategies combining routine digital health tools with pandemic-oriented infrastructures yield the highest resilience-adjusted efficiency. Results remain stable across sensitivity scenarios, with pandemic surveillance consistently ranking as a top priority even under increased cost conditions. The model effectively captures cross-country heterogeneity, demonstrating adaptability to different levels of digital maturity.

Conclusions

AICOT provides a transparent and policy-relevant decision-support framework that improves resource allocation efficiency and reduces unnecessary expenditures. These contributions support long-term financial sustainability and align with global health objectives, including Universal Health Coverage and Sustainable Development Goal 3 (Good Health and Well-being).