Spatial distribution of HIV/AIDS risk in Campinas-SP (1980-2019): a geospatial analysis by decade.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of AIDS case risk (1980-2019) and HIV infection risk (2000-2019) in Campinas, Brazil.

METHODS

We conducted a geospatial case-control study using the Notifiable Diseases Information System data. We included all reported AIDS and HIV cases among individuals aged 13 years or older, excluding pregnant women and death notifications. We geocoded the data using the official cartographic base of the municipality and UTM coordinates (SAD69). We modeled spatial risk using generalized additive models (GAMs), applying the Kelsall and Diggle method with pairs of geographic coordinates as non-parametric predictors. We stratified the results by decade and compared them across periods.

RESULTS

We identified 11,372 AIDS cases (1980-2019) and 3,329 HIV cases (2000-2019). We observed a persistent pattern of high risk in the central district (Distrito Sede) since the 1980s, with progressive expansion toward peripheral districts (Campo Grande, Ouro Verde, Sousas, and Joaquim Egídio). This peripheralization of the epidemic coincided with accelerated urbanization and socio-spatial inequality. The highest incidence rates of HIV and AIDS occurred among adults aged 20 to 39 years, with a notable increase among older adults. The analysis revealed partial overlaps of hotspots and expansion of risk areas.

CONCLUSION

The spatial distribution of HIV/AIDS in Campinas is heterogeneous and dynamic, characterized by persistence in central areas and expansion into vulnerable peripheral regions. Georeferencing was a strategic tool to guide territorially sensitive prevention and control actions.