[Relationship between blood glucose trajectory during intensive care unit stay and mortality in patients with sepsis-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome].

OBJECTIVE

To explore the association between blood glucose trajectories within 7 days of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality in patients with sepsis-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

METHODS

Based on the MIMIC-IV database, sepsis-associated ARDS patients with daily blood glucose monitoring data within 7 days of ICU admission were selected. Blood glucose trajectories were analyzed using group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM), and the optimal number of groups was determined based on the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), average posterior probability (AvePP), odds of correct classification (OCC), and proportion of group membership (Prop). Baseline characteristics including demographics, comorbidities, severity scores, vital signs, laboratory indicators within the first 24 hours of ICU admission, and treatments were collected. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare 28-day and 1-year survival across trajectory groups. Multivariate Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the associations between glucose trajectory groups and in-hospital mortality, ICU mortality. The incidence of hypoglycemia within 7 days in the ICU was analyzed among different groups.

RESULTS

A total of 3 869 patients with sepsis-associated ARDS were included, with a median age of 63.52 (52.13, 73.54) years; 59.6% (2 304/3 869) were male. Based on glucose levels within 7 days, patients were categorized into three groups: persistent hyperglycemia group (glucose maintained at 10.6-13.1 mmol/L, n = 894), moderate glucose group (7.8-8.9 mmol/L, n = 1 452), and low-normal glucose group (6.1-7.0 mmol/L, n = 1 523). There were statistically significant differences in 28-day mortality and 1-year mortality among low-normal glucose group, moderate glucose group, and persistent hyperglycemia group [28-day mortality: 11.42% (174/1 523), 19.83% (288/1 452), 25.50% (228/894), χ 2 = 82.545, P < 0.001; 1-year mortality: 23.31% (355/1 523), 33.75% (490/1 452), 39.49% (353/894), χ 2 = 77.376, P < 0.001]. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that higher glucose trajectories were associated with significantly lower 28-day and 1-year cumulative survival rates (Log-rank test: χ 2 were 83.221 and 85.022, both P < 0.001). There were statistically significant differences in in-hospital mortality and ICU mortality among the low-normal glucose group, moderate glucose group, and persistent hyperglycemia group [in-hospital mortality: 9.65% (147/1 523), 19.70% (286/1 452), 24.50% (219/894), χ 2 = 102.020, P < 0.001; ICU mortality: 7.22% (110/1 523), 16.05% (233/1 452), 20.13% (180/894), χ 2 = 93.050, P < 0.001]. Logistic regression confirmed that, using the persistent hyperglycemia group as the reference, the low-normal glucose group had significantly lower risks of in-hospital mortality and ICU mortality after multiple factor adjustment. Although the moderate glucose group showed a trend toward lower mortality, the differences were not statistically significant. Using the moderate glucose group as a reference, the low-normal glucose group had 43.1% lower in-hospital mortality [odds ratio (OR) = 0.569, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.445-0.726, P < 0.001] and 42.0% lower ICU mortality (OR = 0.580, 95%CI was 0.439-0.762, P < 0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of hypoglycemia within 7 days of ICU admission among low-normal glucose group, moderate glucose group, and persistent hyperglycemia group [2.82% (43/1 523), 2.69% (39/1 452), 3.02% (27/894), χ 2 = 0.226, P = 0.893].

CONCLUSIONS

Blood glucose trajectories during ICU stay are closely associated with prognosis in patients with sepsis-associated ARDS. Persistent hyperglycemia (10.6-13.1 mmol/L) is linked to significantly higher short- and long-term mortality.