Assessing the Predictive Capabilities of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Linear Regression Models for Acute Changes in Clinical and Selected Laboratory Parameters in Children After Cardiac Surgery in the ICU.

(1)

Background

The main objective of this research was to assess the clinical factors related to the condition of pediatric patients with congenital heart defects after they underwent intensive care unit surgery. The information was gathered from the Congenital Heart Disease Surgery Unit at the National Heart Foundation Hospital and Research Institute in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We gathered and examined data from 288 ICU patients. Patients under the age of twelve who required more than a 24-h ICU stay were selected. (2)

Methods

The dependent and independent variables were chosen in advance based on expert opinion. The relationships between these pre-specified ICU parameters were determined using the Pearson correlation model and assessed through linear regression and ARIMA modeling to predict subsequent acute changes in the patients' ICU statuses. (3)

Results

A statistically significant relationship (p value < 0.001) was found between CVP and BP (95% CI = 0.2113; 0.353 r = 0.2841249) and between PEEP and FiO2 (95% CI = 0.6992; 0.770 r = 0.7367744). Although the relationships between pH and PO2 were minor (95% CI = 0.161; 0.308 r = 0.2362575), they were statistically significant. The parameters considered statistically significant (p < 0.001) were chosen for forecasting. In this work, the linear regression model and the ARIMA model used the parameters BP, FiO2, and PO2 for prediction. We forecasted the patients' statuses for the next hour. It was found that the ARIMA model had a lower error rate than the linear regression model. (4)

Conclusions

This study helps identify the important parameters for predicting and monitoring patients' statuses in the ICU, with the ultimate goal of providing physicians with an early warning system to anticipate deterioration in clinical and biochemical parameters. The ability to accurately forecast future patients' conditions can enable proactive, targeted interventions, potentially improving outcomes and reducing the risk of adverse events.