Prediction of death, myocardial infarction, and worsening chest pain using thallium scintigraphy and exercise electrocardiography.

Although used extensively, there is little published information on the prognostic ability of exercise 201Tl scintigraphy. Accordingly, 1 yr after testing we contacted 819 patients without previous MI or CABG seen in our laboratory during a 2-yr period. Events were defined as death from a cardiovascular cause, nonfatal MI, or worsening clinical state requiring CABG. The event rate was 3.9 events per 100 patients per year. There was univariate prognostic information when comparing the highest and lowest categories as risk ratios for chest pain characteristics (2.7), sex (2.3), exercise duration (3.1), ST slope (2.5), and thallium pattern (11.6), intensity of perfusion defect (17.2), and number of abnormal regions (8.7). However, the strongest predictors were also the least common. Prognostic ability was improved by combining the results categorically, as the number of abnormal tests (13.9). The highest risk ratio, 20.5:1, was obtained by combining results through discriminant function analysis. We conclude that exercise thallium scintigraphy provides prognostic information, although the most predictive patterns are uncommon. Combining the results of multiple test results improves the prognostic ability.