Sacubitril/valsartan vs ACEi/ARB at hospital discharge and 5-year survival in older patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: A decision analysis approach.

BACKGROUND: In clinical trials, sacubitril/valsartan has demonstrated significant survival benefits compared to angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEi/ARB). Whether older patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) benefit as much, due to higher rates of comorbidities, frailty and drug discontinuation, is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with HFrEF between 2016 and 2018, we determined all-cause mortality and HF-readmission rates among patients not given ACEi/ARB or sacubitril/valsartan at hospital discharge, by age. We then used risk reductions from the SOLVD, PARADIGM-HF and PIONEER-HF trials to estimate the benefits of ACEi/ARB and sacubitril/valsartan. We then incorporated age-specific estimates of drug discontinuation from Medicare. A Markov decision process model was used to simulate 5-year survival and estimate number needed to treat, comparing discharge on ACEi/ARB vs sacubitril/valsartan by age. After accounting for drug discontinuation rates, which were surprisingly slightly higher among those discharged on ACEi/ARB (2.3%/month vs 1.9%/month), there was a small but significant survival advantage to discharge on sacubitril/valsartan over 5 years (+0.81 months [95% CI 0.80, 0.81]). The benefit of sacubitril/valsartan over ACEi/ARB did not decrease with increasing age - the number needed to treat among 66 to 74-year-old patients was 84 and among 85+ year-old patients was 67.

CONCLUSIONS: Even after accounting for "real world" rates of drug discontinuation, discharge on sacubitril/valsartan after conferred a small, but significant, survival advantage which does not appear to wane with increasing age.