Eastern Mediterranean health journal = La revue de sante de la Mediterranee orientale = al-Majallah al-sihhiyah li-sharq al-mutawassit · 2018
Population and mortality profile in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2006-2035.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Aghamohamadi Saeide, Hajinabi Kamran, Jahangiri Katayoun, Asl Iravan Masoudi, Dehnavieh Reza
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: The Islamic Republic of Iran has encountered demographic and epidemiological changes as a result of the transformation of health measures.
AIMS: This study aimed to calculate the population and mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 2006 to 2035.
METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional analytical-descriptive account. We calculated the age and sex structure of the Iranian population using census data as well as mathematical methods. The crude and causal death rates were calculated and their 20-year trend was predicted using the Lee-Carter model.
RESULTS: In 2035, the age group 60 years and over will reach 17.6% of the total population. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases will be the biggest causes of an increase in the rate of death in the general population. The largest decline in cause of death is for unintentional injuries.
CONCLUSIONS: Noncommunicable diseases will increase as the aging population grows. Identification of their primary causal and risk factors can, therefore, contribute to prevention and control.
AIMS: This study aimed to calculate the population and mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 2006 to 2035.
METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional analytical-descriptive account. We calculated the age and sex structure of the Iranian population using census data as well as mathematical methods. The crude and causal death rates were calculated and their 20-year trend was predicted using the Lee-Carter model.
RESULTS: In 2035, the age group 60 years and over will reach 17.6% of the total population. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases will be the biggest causes of an increase in the rate of death in the general population. The largest decline in cause of death is for unintentional injuries.
CONCLUSIONS: Noncommunicable diseases will increase as the aging population grows. Identification of their primary causal and risk factors can, therefore, contribute to prevention and control.