Population and mortality profile in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2006-2035.

BACKGROUND

The Islamic Republic of Iran has encountered demographic and epidemiological changes as a result of the transformation of health measures.

AIMS: This study aimed to calculate the population and mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 2006 to 2035.

METHODS

We carried out a cross-sectional analytical-descriptive account. We calculated the age and sex structure of the Iranian population using census data as well as mathematical methods. The crude and causal death rates were calculated and their 20-year trend was predicted using the Lee-Carter model.

RESULTS

In 2035, the age group 60 years and over will reach 17.6% of the total population. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases will be the biggest causes of an increase in the rate of death in the general population. The largest decline in cause of death is for unintentional injuries.

CONCLUSIONS

Noncommunicable diseases will increase as the aging population grows. Identification of their primary causal and risk factors can, therefore, contribute to prevention and control.