The prediction of persistent dysphagia beyond six months after stroke.

The purpose of this study was to identify the videofluoroscopic prognostic factors that affect the recovery of swallowing function at an early stage after stroke and to make a tool for predicting the long-term prognosis. Eighty-three poststroke patients were selected prospectively. These patients had all undergone videofluoroscopic swallowing studies at an average of 40 days after stroke onset and were followed up for over six months. Prognostic factors were determined by logistic regression analysis between the baseline videofluoroscopic findings and aspiration over six months (p < 0.05). A videofluoroscopic dysphagia scale (VDS) with a sum of 100 was made according to the odds ratios of prognostic factors. The validity of the scale was evaluated by using a receiver operating characteristic curve. The VDS was compiled using the following 14 items: lip closure, bolus formation, mastication, apraxia, tongue-to-palate contact, premature bolus loss, oral transit time, triggering of pharyngeal swallow, vallecular residue, laryngeal elevation, pyriform sinus residue, coating of pharyngeal wall, pharyngeal transit time, and aspiration. At a scale cutoff value of 47, the sensitivity was 0.91 and the specificity was 0.92. The VDS was developed to be used as an objective and quantifiable predictor of long-term persistent dysphagia after stroke.