FORECASTING THE POPULATION MORTALITY RATE FROM CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES AS A CONDITION OF THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE STATE.

The article analyzes the population mortality rate in Ukraine from cardiovascular diseases (for example of Sumy region). The structure and dynamics of mortality among the region residents as a result of these diseases during 2012-2019 are also considered. Prognostic assessment the population mortality rate in Ukraine from diseases of the circulatory system (regional aspect). We used analytical, statistical research methods, the method of systematic approach and comparative analysis. Statistical processing was performed in accordance with generally accepted methods of variation statistics using the software STATISTICA 8.0. On the basis of the data from annual statistical reports of medical institutions of the Sumy region, subordinate to the Ministry of Public Health of Ukraine (2012-2019), statistical yearbooks, the forecast of mortality of the population from cardiovascular diseases was made. It is predicted that the mortality rate of the population from cardiovascular diseases will slightly increase by 2025 (by 0.5%). This moderate growth will be achieved due to a slight decrease in the population mortality rate from cerebrovascular diseases. But mortality from other cardiovascular pathologies will increase by 2025. Also, the work carried out the forecast of the population mortality rate from various cardiovascular diseases in the territorial respect. The forecast showed that mortality from cardiovascular diseases will increase in 10 of 19 administrative-territorial units of Sumy region. Likewise, the results of forecasting of the population mortality from cardiovascular diseases by Ukraine's region can be used by local authorities to prevent the growth level of mortality of the population from this pathology and to prevent of morbidity increase.