Minimum-Regret Hydrogen and Carbon Supply Chains to Decarbonize European Industrial Hydrogen Demands.

Low-carbon hydrogen (H2) is envisioned to play a central role in decarbonizing European hard-to-abate industries, such as refineries, ammonia, methanol, steel, and cement. To facilitate its widespread use, low-carbon H2 supply chain (HSC) infrastructure is needed. However, uncertainties around future low-carbon H2 demands and biomass availability hamper their proliferation. This work investigates the impact of uncertainties in H2 demand and biomass availability on the optimal HSC design. A linear optimization model is used to determine the cost-optimal HSC design, considering a regional spatial resolution and a multiyear time horizon from 2022 to 2050. CO2 and biomass infrastructure is designed alongside the HSC. A scenario-based approach is used to derive minimum-regret strategies and support infrastructure development. Results show that investing in scalable H2 production capacity, targeting 10 Mt/a by 2030, enables flexible expansion to meet larger H2 demands of up to 35 Mt/a by 2050. Although biomass-based H2 production is most cost-effective, coupling conventional H2 production with carbon capture and storage or investments in electrolysis provide more flexibility. Moreover, investments in CO2 infrastructure are essential, often determining the ability to achieve 2050 climate targets.