Aiding peace or conflict? The impact of USAID cuts on violence.

Less than a week after its inauguration, the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest national humanitarian donor. The social and political effects of abrupt aid withdrawal are poorly understood, especially in fragile states where relief is a key safety net. We provide quasi-experimental evidence on the shutdown's impact on subnational conflict across Africa. Leveraging historical exposure to USAID programs, we show that conflict increased sharply after the shutdown in areas that previously received the most support. The increase spanned incidence and severity, including armed clashes, protests, and riots. The effects appeared immediately and persisted for months. Inclusive local institutions substantially mitigated these harms, underscoring vulnerability under weak governance and the capacity of institutions to buffer humanitarian and economic shocks.