[Influence of the demographic change on hospital admissions and costs in Germany].

BACKGROUND

In the next years the population of most western countries will age rapidly. Beside socioeconomic and social problems sustainable consequences on the health care system are expected. Ageing of the population will place a corresponding growth in demand of health care services and relating expenditures. The following analysis assesses the impact of demographic factors on hospital admissions and related costs over the next 30 years.

METHOD: German Federal Statistical Office 12th coordinated population projection, diagnosis statistics and cost of illness data were used to develop a projection of future hospital admissions and associated economic burden. The model considers age- and sex-specific differences.

RESULTS

Ageing will increase all-cause hospital admissions by 12% between 2010 and 2040. Diseases of the circulatory system will have one of the most tremendous increases with an expected rise of 34% until 2040. In contrast, hospital stays because of mental and behavioural disorders will decrease by 9%. As hospital admissions rise we expect a further increase in overall expenditures for hospitalisations.

DISCUSSION: Ageing of the population will further increase the demand for inpatient hospital services during the coming years. Nevertheless, the increase of hospital admissions will differ concerning single illness groups. The development of new care strategies should take these aspects into consideration.