Assessing Pathways to Carbon Neutrality in the Ceramic Sector: A Prospective Life Cycle Assessment under Energy System Projections and Technology Scenarios.

Ceramic manufacturing is a hard-to-abate industry given its intrinsic reliance on high-temperature operations and fossil-based thermal energy. Capitalizing on detailed industrial data, this study presents a prospective life cycle assessment of decarbonization pathways for ceramic brick production grounded in forward-looking energy system projections. Six technology adoption scenarios are evaluated for 2020 and 2050 under both current policy and net-zero trajectories. Results show that integrating heat pumps today for low-temperature drying can reduce the global warming potential (GWP) by up to 24% compared to continued natural gas use. Fuel-switching to hydrogen or biogas enables substantial reductions in the GWP of around 85% under net-zero conditions. Notably, coupling biogas combustion with carbon capture and storage (CCS) already achieves net-negative emissions, reaching -29.95 kg CO2-eq per tonne in 2020 and up to -73.05 kg by 2050, positioning it as a viable carbon dioxide removal strategy. However, several scenarios exhibit important trade-offs, including increased water consumption and land occupation, particularly in hydrogen and biobased pathways. Our findings underscore the need for integrated policies and multicriteria decision-making considering impacts beyond climate change to align energy transition and technology adoption, ensuring decarbonization strategies in the ceramic sector are both practical and sustainable.