Prognostic model for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients requiring mechanical ventilation.

OBJECTIVE

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a major cause of death and disability worldwide and imposes serious burdens on society and individuals. However, predicting the long-term outcomes in aSAH patients requiring mechanical ventilation remains challenging. We sought to establish a model utilizing the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-penalized Cox regression to estimate the prognosis of aSAH patients requiring mechanical ventilation, based on regularly utilized and easily accessible clinical variables.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from the Dryad Digital Repository. Potentially relevant features were selected using LASSO regression analysis. Multiple Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to develop a model using the training set. Receiver operating characteristics and calibration curves were used to assess its predictive accuracy and discriminative power. Kaplan-Meier and decision curve analyses (DCA) were used to evaluate the clinical utility of the model.

RESULTS

Independent prognostic factors, including the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 2, early brain injury, rebleeding, and length of intensive care unit stay, were identified and included in the nomogram. In the training set, the area under the curve values for 1-, 2-, and 4-year survival predictions were 0.82, 0.81, and 0.80, respectively. In the validation set, the nomogram exhibited excellent discrimination ability and good calibration. Moreover, DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically beneficial. Finally, a web-based nomogram was constructed (https://rehablitation.shinyapps.io/aSAH).

INTERPRETATION: Our model is a useful tool for accurately predicting long-term outcomes in patients with aSAH who require mechanical ventilation and can assist in making individualized interventions by providing valuable information.