Global and regional drivers of chronic kidney disease burden in older adults: The dominant role of high fasting plasma glucose and the rise of obesity in China.

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge for older adults, increasing global healthcare burdens. However, comprehensive global analyses of long-term trends and regional disparities in CKD burden among older adults are still lacking. To fill this critical gap, we aimed to assess global, regional, and national CKD trends and identify age-specific patterns among adults aged ≥60 years.

METHODS

Data was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Temporal trends were evaluated via Joinpoint regression to compute average annual percentage changes (AAPC) values. Trends were further disaggregated by age, period, and birth cohort using an age-period-cohort model. The determinants of CKD burden were also explored.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global prevalence of CKD in older adults was 296.22 million, with 13.47 million new cases, 1.17 million deaths, and 24.03 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)-representing increases of 113 %, 163 %, 177 %, and 208 % respectively since 1992. However, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) slightly declined [AAPC -0.14 (95 % confidence interval:0.15 to -0.14)]. The CKD burden in older adults varied by region and age group, with notable gender disparities. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), primarily driven by high fasting plasma glucose, emerged as a leading contributor to DALYs. In addition, high body mass index emerged as a fast-growing, previously under-recognized contributor, particularly in China and middle-SDI regions.

CONCLUSION

Between 1992 and 2021, CKD-related mortality and DALYs among older adults increased significantly worldwide, primarily driven by population growth and T2DM, despite a slight decline in the ASPR.