Long-term outcomes and independent predictors of mortality in patients presenting to emergency departments with acute heart failure in Beijing: a multicenter cohort study with a 5-year follow-up.

BACKGROUND

Acute heart failure (AHF) is the most common disease in emergency departments (EDs). However, clinical data exploring the outcomes of patients presenting AHF in EDs are limited, especially the long-term outcomes. The purposes of this study were to describe the long-term outcomes of patients with AHF in the EDs and further analyze their prognostic factors.

METHODS

This prospective, multicenter, cohort study consecutively enrolled 3335 patients with AHF who were admitted to EDs of 14 hospitals from Beijing between January 1, 2011 and September 23, 2012. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis were adopted to evaluate 5-year outcomes and associated predictors.

RESULTS

The 5-year mortality and cardiovascular death rates were 55.4% and 49.6%, respectively. The median overall survival was 34 months. Independent predictors of 5-year mortality were patient age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.027, 95 confidence interval [CI]: 1.023-1.030), body mass index (BMI) (HR: 0.971, 95% CI: 0.958-0.983), fatigue (HR: 1.127, 95% CI: 1.009-1.258), ascites (HR: 1.190, 95% CI: 1.057-1.340), hepatic jugular reflux (HR: 1.339, 95% CI: 1.140-1.572), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III to IV (HR: 1.511, 95% CI: 1.291-1.769), heart rate (HR: 1.003, 95% CI: 1.001-1.005), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (HR: 0.996, 95% CI: 0.993-0.999), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (HR: 1.014, 95% CI: 1.008-1.020), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level in the third (HR: 1.426, 95% CI: 1.220-1.668) or fourth quartile (HR: 1.437, 95% CI: 1.223-1.690), serum sodium (HR: 0.980, 95% CI: 0.972-0.988), serum albumin (HR: 0.981, 95% CI: 0.971-0.992), ischemic heart diseases (HR: 1.195, 95% CI: 1.073-1.331), primary cardiomyopathy (HR: 1.382, 95% CI: 1.183-1.614), diabetes (HR: 1.118, 95% CI: 1.010-1.237), stroke (HR: 1.252, 95% CI: 1.121-1.397), and the use of diuretics (HR: 0.714, 95% CI: 0.626-0.814), β-blockers (HR: 0.673, 95% CI: 0.588-0.769), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) (HR: 0.714, 95% CI: 0.604-0.845), angiotensin-II receptor blockers (ARBs) (HR: 0.790, 95% CI: 0.646-0.965), spironolactone (HR: 0.814, 95% CI: 0.663-0.999), calcium antagonists (HR: 0.624, 95% CI: 0.531-0.733), nitrates (HR: 0.715, 95% CI: 0.631-0.811), and digoxin (HR: 0.579, 95% CI: 0.465-0.721).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our study demonstrate poor 5-year outcomes of patients presenting to EDs with AHF. Age, BMI, fatigue, ascites, hepatic jugular reflux, NYHA class III to IV, heart rate, DBP, BUN, BNP/NT-proBNP level in the third or fourth quartile, serum sodium, serum albumin, ischemic heart diseases, primary cardiomyopathy, diabetes, stroke, and the use of diuretics, β-blockers, ACEIs, ARBs, spironolactone, calcium antagonists, nitrates, and digoxin were independently associated with 5-year all-cause mortality.