Modeling and sensitivity analysis of cholera dynamics under fuzzy imprecision.

This article presents a sensitivity analysis of the cholera transmission model, in which all parameters related to disease dynamics are considered as fuzzy numbers. Classical and system sensitivities of this fuzzy system have been analyzed to provide a real world approximation to cholera outbreaks. Graphical results indicate that the susceptible population is most sensitive to the new recruitment and disease-induced mortality rates of the infected and treated populations, whereas the infected population is found to be more sensitive to immune loss and disease transmission rate. The treated individuals have proven sensitivity towards the contact rate, while the recovered ones are more sensitive to the recovery and disease-induced death rates. The cumulative effect of these sensitivities with respect to induced fuzzy parameters on the model output has been reflected in the system sensitivities. As a consequence of this analysis, treatment and the disease transmission rate are identified as the most influential parameters for this newly structured model.