Beyond environmental identity: Testing public support for novel carbon dioxide removal in Australia using structural modelling.

Climate change presents a significant environmental challenge, and novel carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are increasingly recognised as critical strategies for mitigation. Although many of these technologies are still under development, support and governance remain uncertain. Public acceptance is key to large-scale CDR deployment, yet research on this topic is limited, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study focuses on Australia, where interest in novel CDR is gaining momentum in both research and policy domains. We examine two key questions: (1) To what extent does the Australian public support novel CDR? and (2) What factors influence this support? Using a nationally representative survey of 340 members of the Australian public, with quotas set for age, gender, geographic region, income and education, we explore public perceptions of four CDR approaches: Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage, Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage, Enhanced Rock Weathering, and Biochar. We develop and validate a structural model to understand how an interplay of factors shapes public perceptions of novel CDR, including perceived benefits and risks, trust in institutions, concerns about tampering with nature, and the environmental self-identity of participants. Our findings show that trust in institutions and perceived benefits are key drivers of public support, while concerns about tampering with nature decrease it. Environmental self-identity positively influences support. Therefore, if they are to ensure responsible deployment of novel CDR technologies, policymakers must prioritise building institutional trust, clearly communicating benefits, and addressing public concerns about environmental integrity.