Analysis on spatial pattern evolution and policy of CO2 emissions from economic sectors in China from 2005 to 2020.

Using ArcGIS spatial analysis and trend prediction methods, this study examines the spatiotemporal evolution patterns, trends, and policy responses of CO2 emissions across economic sectors in China. As a core component of the national carbon reduction strategy, this research aims to provide a scientific reference for formulating China's "Dual Carbon" policy goals. The main findings are as follows: (1) China's CO2 emissions exhibit a characteristic inverse relationship between total emission volume and regional growth rate-regions with lower total emissions tend to experience higher growth rates. In recent years, the service and transportation sectors have gradually emerged as new major sources of CO2 emissions. (2) The growth of total CO2 emissions from economic sectors shows a nationwide diffusive trend. Specifically, industrial CO2 growth trends westward, agricultural emissions shift southward, the service sector expands southwestward, transportation emissions move eastward, and household emissions diffuse across the country. (3) CO2 emissions are significantly correlated with urban economic development level, energy structure, industrial production intensity, and policy implementation. Moreover, the effectiveness of local government oversight directly influences the outcomes of emission control policies.