Spatio-temporal patterns of cholera outbreak in rural settings of Ethiopia, 2023.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the spatio-temporal pattern of cholera in rural settings of Ethiopia.

METHODS

A spatiotemporal analysis of daily cholera cases in 59 Kebeles across 7 districts in the Gedeo zone from April 2 to November 18, 2023, obtained from the Gedeo Zone Health Department, was conducted. The global Moran's I statistic was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the retrospective space-time scan statistic was used to analyze spatiotemporal clusters of cholera.

RESULTS

Throughout the outbreak, 792 cholera cases were reported, corresponding to an annual incidence of 169.4 per 100,000 population. The spatial distribution showed strong autocorrelation, with a global Moran's I coefficient of 0.272 (P-value <0.001). Five statistically significant clusters were identified by space-time scan statistics using a discrete Poisson model. These identified clusters overlapped in time and had longer durations with a relatively high risk of cholera in the study areas.

CONCLUSION

The identification of high-risk clusters specific to rural settings forms the basis for rapid public health emergency response and resource allocation by prioritizing the significantly high-risk clusters to control and eventually eliminate cholera. There is room to improve the public health response to cholera outbreaks in the study settings.