AIDS (London, England) · 2015
Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau.
СтатьяПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Fryer Helen R, Van Tienen Carla, Van Der Loeff Maarten Schim, Aaby Peter, Da Silva Zacarias J, Whittle Hilton, Rowland-Jones Sarah L, de Silva Thushan I
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caió, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caió, can persist as an infection of the elderly.
DESIGN: A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau.
METHODS: An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections.
RESULTS: HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly.
CONCLUSION: HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.
DESIGN: A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau.
METHODS: An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections.
RESULTS: HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly.
CONCLUSION: HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.