Prediction of cardiovascular mortality in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction after primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

OBJECTIVES: We analyzed a large patient group to develop a clinical risk score that could be applied to patients after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS: We reviewed 2529 consecutive patients treated with primary PCI for ST-elevation myocardial infarction between 2003 and 2008. All clinical, angiographic and follow-up data were retrospectively collected. Independent predictors of in-hospital cardiovascular mortality were determined by multivariate Cox regression analysis in all study patients.

RESULTS: Five variables (Killip class 2/3, unsuccessful procedure, contrast-induced nephropathy, diabetes mellitus, and age >70 years) were selected from the initial multivariate model. Each of them was weighted with 1 point according to their respective odds ratio for in-hospital mortality and then total risk score was calculated for each patient with a range of 0-5 points. For simplicity, four strata of risk were defined (low risk, score 0; intermediate risk, score 1; high risk, score 2 and very high risk, score > or =3). Each risk strata had a strong association with in-hospital cardiovascular mortality (P<0.001 for trend). Moreover, among survivors after an in-hospital period, our risk score continued to be a powerful predictor of long-term mortality (P<0.001 for trend).

CONCLUSION: In patients treated with primary PCI, a risk score, which was developed from five risk factors readily available after intervention, may be useful to predict in-hospital and long-term cardiovascular mortality.