Future microbiology · 2016
The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management.
СтатьяПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Duintjer Tebbens Radboud J, Thompson Kimberly M
Аннотация
AIM: To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response.
METHODS: INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management.
RESULTS: Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations.
CONCLUSION: New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.
METHODS: INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management.
RESULTS: Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations.
CONCLUSION: New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.