Diabetologia · 2024
Prediabetes is associated with elevated risk of clinical outcomes even without progression to diabetes.
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Rooney Mary R, Wallace Amelia S, Echouffo Tcheugui Justin B, Fang Michael, Hu Jiaqi, Lutsey Pamela L, Grams Morgan E, Coresh Josef, Selvin Elizabeth
Аннотация
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Prediabetes (HbA1c 39-47 mmol/mol [5.7-6.4%] or fasting glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/l) is associated with elevated risks of microvascular and macrovascular complications. It is unknown to what extent these risks in prediabetes remain after accounting for progression to diabetes.
METHODS: In 10,310 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (aged 46-70 years, ~55% women, ~20% Black adults) without diabetes at baseline (1990-1992), we used Cox regression to characterise age- and sex-adjusted associations of prediabetes with ~30 year incidence of complications (composite and separately), including atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), heart failure, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and all-cause mortality before and after accounting for intervening incidence of diabetes, modelled as a time-varying variable. We calculated the excess risk of complications in prediabetes remaining after accounting for progression to diabetes.
RESULTS: Of the 60% of adults with prediabetes at baseline, ~30% progressed to diabetes (median time to diabetes, 7 years). Over the maximum follow-up of ~30 years, there were 7069 events (1937 ASCVD, 2109 heart failure, 3288 CKD and 4785 deaths). Prediabetes was modestly associated with risk of any complication (HR 1.21 [95% CI 1.15, 1.27]) vs normoglycaemia. This association remained significant after accounting for progression to diabetes (HR 1.18 [95% CI 1.12, 1.24]) with 85% (95% CI 75, 94%) of the excess risk of any complication in prediabetes remaining. Results were similar for the individual complications.
CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Progression to diabetes explained less than one-quarter of the risks of clinical outcomes associated with prediabetes. Prediabetes contributes to the risk of clinical outcomes even without progression to diabetes.
METHODS: In 10,310 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (aged 46-70 years, ~55% women, ~20% Black adults) without diabetes at baseline (1990-1992), we used Cox regression to characterise age- and sex-adjusted associations of prediabetes with ~30 year incidence of complications (composite and separately), including atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), heart failure, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and all-cause mortality before and after accounting for intervening incidence of diabetes, modelled as a time-varying variable. We calculated the excess risk of complications in prediabetes remaining after accounting for progression to diabetes.
RESULTS: Of the 60% of adults with prediabetes at baseline, ~30% progressed to diabetes (median time to diabetes, 7 years). Over the maximum follow-up of ~30 years, there were 7069 events (1937 ASCVD, 2109 heart failure, 3288 CKD and 4785 deaths). Prediabetes was modestly associated with risk of any complication (HR 1.21 [95% CI 1.15, 1.27]) vs normoglycaemia. This association remained significant after accounting for progression to diabetes (HR 1.18 [95% CI 1.12, 1.24]) with 85% (95% CI 75, 94%) of the excess risk of any complication in prediabetes remaining. Results were similar for the individual complications.
CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Progression to diabetes explained less than one-quarter of the risks of clinical outcomes associated with prediabetes. Prediabetes contributes to the risk of clinical outcomes even without progression to diabetes.