Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease in Israel (1985-2019).

BACKGROUND

Although the epidemiology of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in Israel has been studied extensively, it is unknown whether its incidence is mainly a result of vertical transmission due to the high penetrance of the E200K mutation in patients with familial CJD (f-CJD) compared to sporadic CJD (s-CJD), or whether there are other yet undiscovered contributing factors.

OBJECTIVES

To conduct an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in Israel.

METHODS

In this APC analysis, we used a web-based statistical tool to identify whether patient age, period of birth, and cohort had any effect on incidence trends of s-CJD and f-CJD.

RESULTS

APC analysis demonstrated no significant shifts in net drift, indicating the absence of any overall trend of changes over time. Cohort analysis revealed that individuals affected by either s-CJD or f-CJD who were mostly born in Israel in the second half of the 20th century exhibited the same risk as those born mainly in Libya at the beginning of 20th century. There were no changes in risk of s-CJD and f-CJD between 1985 and 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence rates of s-CJD and f-CJD in Israel have remained unchanged, indicating that the probability of a future increase in the incidence is negligible.