American journal of nephrology · 2025
Circulating Proteins for Prediction of Kidney Disease Progression and Cardiovascular Outcomes: Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Four Cohorts.
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Lopez-Silva Carolina, Surapaneni Aditya, Coresh Josef, Chen Teresa K, Schlosser Pascal, Rhee Eugene P, Waikar Sushrut S, Schmidt Insa M, Deo Rajat, Ganz Peter, Dubin Ruth, Ramachandran Vasan S, Kimmel Paul L, Schrauben Sarah J, Parikh Chirag R, Bonventre Joseph V, Dobre Mirela, Rao Panduranga S, Ricardo Ana C, Weir Matthew R, Grams Morgan E, CRIC Study Investigators
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: KIM-1, TNFRSF1A, and TNFRSF1B have been accepted as early risk markers in diabetic kidney disease by the US Food and Drug Administration. Whether they may be useful in identifying high-risk patients for cardiovascular/kidney clinical trial enrollment in other important subgroups is uncertain.
METHODS: We evaluated the potential prognostic enrichment of KIM-1, TNFRSF1A, and TNFRSF1B in four cohorts: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) (N = 4,594, mean age 76 years, 55% women, mean eGFR 68 mL/min/1.73 m2), African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) (N = 705, mean age 55 years, 39% women, mean mGFR 46 mL/min/1.73 m2), Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) (N = 2,943, mean age 59 years, 45% women, mean eGFR 35 mL/min/1.73 m2), and Boston Kidney Biopsy Cohort (BKBC) (N = 434, mean age 54 years, 48% women, mean eGFR 51 mL/min/1.73 m2). We evaluated three outcomes: 40% glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline, kidney failure, and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) overall and in two subgroups historically underrepresented in clinical trials: participants with no diabetes, and those with albuminuria <200 mg/g.
RESULTS: Published models (40% decline tool, kidney failure risk equation, and PREVENT) using clinical variables had moderate to strong risk discrimination in each cohort: 40% GFR decline, AUROC range: 0.78-0.90; kidney failure, C-statistic range: 0.75-0.93; and CVD, C-statistic range: 0.59-0.79. After addition of biomarkers, there was a small but significant improvement in the meta-analyzed overall population: change in AUROC in 40% GFR decline: 0.02, p < 0.001; change in C-statistic for kidney failure: 0.01, p = 0.02; change in C-statistic for CVD: 0.01, p = 0.03. Among participants without diabetes, the change was statistically significant only for 40% decline; among patient with albuminuria <200 mg/g, the change was statistically significant only for the two kidney outcomes.
CONCLUSION: KIM-1, TNFRSF1A, and TNFRSF1B may not be strong prognostic enrichment biomarkers over and above clinical risk estimates. Clinical trials should test whether they help with predictive enrichment.
METHODS: We evaluated the potential prognostic enrichment of KIM-1, TNFRSF1A, and TNFRSF1B in four cohorts: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) (N = 4,594, mean age 76 years, 55% women, mean eGFR 68 mL/min/1.73 m2), African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) (N = 705, mean age 55 years, 39% women, mean mGFR 46 mL/min/1.73 m2), Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) (N = 2,943, mean age 59 years, 45% women, mean eGFR 35 mL/min/1.73 m2), and Boston Kidney Biopsy Cohort (BKBC) (N = 434, mean age 54 years, 48% women, mean eGFR 51 mL/min/1.73 m2). We evaluated three outcomes: 40% glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline, kidney failure, and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) overall and in two subgroups historically underrepresented in clinical trials: participants with no diabetes, and those with albuminuria <200 mg/g.
RESULTS: Published models (40% decline tool, kidney failure risk equation, and PREVENT) using clinical variables had moderate to strong risk discrimination in each cohort: 40% GFR decline, AUROC range: 0.78-0.90; kidney failure, C-statistic range: 0.75-0.93; and CVD, C-statistic range: 0.59-0.79. After addition of biomarkers, there was a small but significant improvement in the meta-analyzed overall population: change in AUROC in 40% GFR decline: 0.02, p < 0.001; change in C-statistic for kidney failure: 0.01, p = 0.02; change in C-statistic for CVD: 0.01, p = 0.03. Among participants without diabetes, the change was statistically significant only for 40% decline; among patient with albuminuria <200 mg/g, the change was statistically significant only for the two kidney outcomes.
CONCLUSION: KIM-1, TNFRSF1A, and TNFRSF1B may not be strong prognostic enrichment biomarkers over and above clinical risk estimates. Clinical trials should test whether they help with predictive enrichment.