Has the realization of ecological product value diminished carbon emission intensity? Evidence from Chinese counties.

Achieving sustained economic growth while reducing carbon dioxide emissions is a common objective for developing countries. China's exploration of ecological product value realization (EPVR) offers valuable new evidence for research in this area, particularly at the county level, which remains underexplored in existing studies. This study employs panel data from 2526 counties in China between 2010 and 2022, utilizing the Super-SBM model and two-way fixed effects model to explore the impact of EPVR on carbon emission intensity (CEI). The findings indicate that over the past decade, the efficiency of EPVR in Chinese counties has steadily improved, while CEI has continuously declined. Specifically, EPVRE at the county level increased significantly, with the average rising from 0.318 in 2010 to 0.752 in 2022. At the same time, CEI at the county level exhibited a clear downward trend, with the average decreasing from 3.102 t/10000 CNY in 2010 to 1.708 t/10000 CNY in 2022. EPVR significantly reduces county-level CEI, and the results remain robust after addressing endogeneity and conducting various robustness tests. EPVR influences CEI by enhancing the ecological quality of counties (notably having a positive and significant impact on both NDVI and NPP), increasing local government expenditure on environmental protection, and facilitating the transformation of industrial structures. Specifically, EPVR negatively affects the share of value added by the secondary sector while positively impacting the share of value added by the tertiary sector. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the negative impact of EPVR on CEI is more pronounced in small-scale counties and those in western regions. This study provides new insights into the impact of EPVR on CEI at the county level, offering new insights for China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, while providing valuable lessons for sustainable economic development in other developing countries.