Regional burden, trends, and future projections of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes mellitus in South Asia: insights from the global burden of disease study (1990-2021) and ARIMA forecasting.

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to Type 2Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is an increasing health burden in South Asia. This study evaluates the burden, trends, and future projections of CKD from 1990-2021 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data and ARIMA modeling.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND

METHODS

We analyzed age-standardized rates (ASR) for prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs of CKD due to T2DM in South Asia(India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal). Join point regression and ARIMAmodels were applied for trend analysis and projections.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, prevalence decreased slightly (e.g. India: 5.4% to 5.2%), while mortality increased (e.g.Pakistan: 33.7 to 42.1 per 100,000). Incidence increased across all countries, with Nepal (1.3% increase) and Bhutan (1.7% increase) showing the highest growth. Projections indicate a continued rise in CKD burden, especially inNepal and India.

CONCLUSION

CKD due to T2DM is increasing, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions.