Probabilistic ecological hazard assessment: evaluating pharmaceutical effects on aquatic higher plants as an example.

The practicality of a probabilistic ecological hazard assessment (PEHA) methodology using intraspecies endpoint sensitivity distributions (IESDs) and chemical toxicity distributions (CTDs) was evaluated on data sets of pharmaceutical toxicity to aquatic macrophytes. A PEHA does not use an exposure distribution but rather uses a point estimate, which is useful for applications with sufficient effects data but lacking in comprehensive exposure data or when a criterion concentration is desired. The probability of finding an effect measure or potency value below a threshold can be calculated from the effects distribution. PEHA analyses using CTDs for both EC(10) and EC(25)Lemna gibba toxicity values indicated a <1% probability of encountering an antibiotic with toxicity below 1 microg/L. IESDs for microcosm mixture studies with eight pharmaceuticals (8PM) and four tetracyclines showed that the probability was nearly 20% for Myriophyllum sibiricum and 13% for L. gibba (8PM data). Hazard quotients calculated from the 1% and 5% distribution thresholds indicated potential risk only in certain cases.