Longitudinal Trajectories of Alcohol Consumption with All-Cause Mortality, Hypertension, and Blood Pressure Change: Results from CHNS Cohort, 1993-2015.

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated a J-shaped association of alcohol consumption with all-cause mortality and hypertension, but the majority of these studies focus on a single measurement of alcohol intake and were conducted in a Western population. Whether long-term trajectories of alcohol consumption are associated with all-cause mortality, hypertension, and a change in blood pressure remains to be elucidated.

METHODS

In the large, population-based China Health and Nutrition Survey cohort from between 1993 and 2015, group-based trajectory modeling was conducted to identify distinct alcohol-consumption trajectory classes. We investigated their association with all-cause mortality and hypertension using Cox regression and binary logistics regression models. A restricted cubic spline was performed to determine the nonlinear relationships of mean alcohol intake with mortality and hypertension. Multivariate-adjusted generalized linear mixed-effects models were conducted to assess the change in blood pressure among alcohol-consumption trajectory classes.

RESULTS

Among the 5298 participants, 48.4% were women and the mean age was 62.6 years. After 22 years of follow-up, 568 (10.7%) of the participants died and 1284 (24.2%) developed hypertension. Long-term light and moderate drinkers had a lower risk of death than the non-drinkers, and a restricted cubic spline showed a J-shaped relationship between mean alcohol intake and mortality. Although blood pressure increased slower in light and moderate drinkers, a reduced risk of hypertension was only observed in the former. The long-term heavy drinkers had the highest blood pressure and death rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Light alcohol intake might be protective even in the long run, while heavy drinking reversed the beneficial effect. The causality of such a connection needs to be further investigated.