A nomogram based on radiomic features from peri-prostatic adipose tissue for predicting bone metastasis in first-time diagnosed prostate cancer patients.

PURPOSE: To evaluate a radiomics-based nomogram using peri-prostatic adipose tissue (PPAT) features for predicting bone metastasis (BM) in newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) patients.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 151 PCa patients (October 2010-November 2022) was conducted. Radiomic features were extracted from axial T2-weighted MRI of PPAT, and normalized PPAT was calculated as the ratio of PPAT volume to prostate volume. A radiomics score (Radscore) was developed using logistic regression with 16 features selected via LASSO regression. Independent predictors identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to construct a nomogram. Predictive performance was assessed using ROC curves, and internal validation involved 1000 bootstrapped iterations.

RESULTS

The Radscore, based on 16 features, showed significant association with BM and outperformed normalized PPAT in predictive value. Independent predictors of BM included Radscore, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and clinical N stage (cN). A nomogram integrating these factors demonstrated strong discrimination (C-index: 0.908; 95% CI: 0.851-0.966) and calibration, with consistent results in validation (C-index: 0.903; 95% CI: 0.897-0.916). Decision curve analysis confirmed its clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

Radscore, cN, and ALP were identified as independent BM predictors. The developed nomogram enables accurate risk stratification and personalized BM predictions for newly diagnosed PCa patients.