Predictors of survival in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis patients: the importance of left ventricular hypertrophy and diabetic nephropathy.

We retrospectively evaluated the factors that are prognostic in long-term continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD). From 1986 to 1997, 91 CAPD patients (59 male, 32 female, mean age 48 years) entered the study. Their primary renal diseases were chronic glomerulonephritis (CGN, n = 80), diabetic nephropathy (DN, n = 10), and polycystic kidney disease (PKD, n = 1). The roles of primary renal disease, hypertension, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), cardiac sympathetic activity, anemia, hypoalbuminemia, and plasma concentration of parathyroid hormone (PTH) on patient prognosis were analyzed. Among the 91 CAPD patients, 26 died during the observation period. Of these deaths, 17 resulted from cardiovascular diseases including cerebrovascular events (n = 7), myocardial infarction (n = 2), sudden death (n = 7), and aortic aneurysmal rupture (n = 1). Nine patients died of non cardiovascular events. Sclerosing encapsulating peritonitis and others, mainly cachexia, accounted for 2 and 7 of these deaths, respectively. The 5-year survival rate was 74%; the 10-year rate was 49%. The cumulative 5- and 10-year success rates of CAPD were 69% and 39%, respectively. DN, hypertension, severe LVH (more than 200 g/m2), and hypoalbuminemia were contributors to poor prognosis. Among these, DN and severe LVH were the two main predictors by Cox proportional hazards model. We conclude that CAPD patients with DN or severe LVH, or both, have a greater chance of drop-out from cardiovascular events.