Increased Temperature and CO2 Induce Plasticity and Impose Novel Selection on Plant Traits.

Climate change is simultaneously increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) and temperatures. We conducted a multi-factorial growth chamber experiment to examine how these climate change factors interact to influence the expression of ecologically relevant morphological and phenological traits, clines in these traits, and natural selection on these traits using diverse accessions of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) sourced from a broad elevational gradient in Colorado, USA. Plastic shifts in a key allocation trait (root mass fraction) in response to temperature accorded with the direction of selection via the probability of flowering, indicating that plasticity in this trait could be adaptive. However, plasticity in a foliar functional trait (leaf dry matter content) in response to temperature and [CO2] did not align with the direction of selection, indicating that plasticity could reduce fitness . For another ecologically important phenotype, selection favored resource acquisitive trait values (higher specific leaf area) under elevated [CO2] and resource conservative trait values (lower specific leaf area) at lower [CO2], despite the lack of plasticity in this trait. This pattern of selection counters published reports that elevated [CO2] induces low specific leaf area but could enable plants to reproduce across a greater period of the growing season under increasingly warm climates. Indeed, warmer temperatures prolonged the duration of flowering. This plasticity is likely adaptive, as selection favored increased flowering duration in the higher temperature treatment level. Thus, climate change could impose novel and unanticipated patterns of natural selection on plant traits, and plasticity in these traits can be a maladaptive response to stress.