Ecological niche and risk modeling of West Nile virus using environmental and biological thresholds.

Managing pathogen outbreaks remains a significant challenge. This study aimed to assess the ecological thresholds of West Nile virus (WNV) circulation by integrating long-term viral data with climate information. We analyzed WNV sequences retrieved from NCBI Virus and associated climatic variables, focusing on samples linked to mosquito vectors and avian hosts. Using Random Forest–based species-specific ecological niche models, we identified eight vector and bird species with high predictive performance (AUC > 0.7). These models were integrated into a spatial risk framework to highlight conditions most favorable for WNV transmission. Peak risk occurred at temperatures between 30 and 35 °C and precipitation levels of 0–100 mm, where both vectors and avian hosts overlapped. Our findings emphasize the ecological complexity of arbovirus systems and the importance of incorporating climate-sensitive and species-level insights into surveillance and control strategies, particularly under changing climate conditions.