European journal of radiology · 2021
CT-derived quantitative liver volumetric parameters for prediction of severe esophageal varices and the risk of first variceal hemorrhage.
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Wan Shang, Wei Yi, Zhang Xin, Yang Caiwei, Song Bin
Аннотация
PURPOSE: To assess whether CT (computed tomography)-derived quantitative parameters of liver lobe volume can predict severe esophageal varices (EV) and the risk of first varicealhemorrhage (FVH) in patients with liver cirrhosis.
METHODS: A total of 217 endoscopically confirmed EV patients were included in this retrospective study and were divided into a low-risk EV group (mild-to-moderate EV, n = 83) and a high-risk EV group (severe EV, n = 134), a FVH group (n = 17) and a non-FVH group (n = 27), patients' clinical findings were recorded. The left, right, caudate lobe, total liver volume and the corresponding functional volume were measured respectively, and the ratio of caudate volume/total volume (CV/TV), caudate functional volume/total functional volume (CFV/TFV) were calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were used to determine the independent factors and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance.
RESULTS: CV, CFV, CV/TV, CFV/TFV were significantly different in the EV severity study and FVH study (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that CV/TV and ascites were independent predictive factors for severe EV, a predictive model combing those two factors revealed a satisfactory diagnostic performance (area under the curve (AUC), 0.853, 95 %CI 0.797-0.905). Furthermore, CV/TV and the presence of red color sign under endoscopy were found to be independent predictive factors for FVH, and the former showed a better discriminative performance than the latter (AUC, 0.851 vs 0.779).
CONCLUSIONS: CT-derived quantitative parameters of CV, CFV, CV/TV, CFV/TFV may be used as an alternative to endoscopy in predicting severe varices and the risk of bleeding.
METHODS: A total of 217 endoscopically confirmed EV patients were included in this retrospective study and were divided into a low-risk EV group (mild-to-moderate EV, n = 83) and a high-risk EV group (severe EV, n = 134), a FVH group (n = 17) and a non-FVH group (n = 27), patients' clinical findings were recorded. The left, right, caudate lobe, total liver volume and the corresponding functional volume were measured respectively, and the ratio of caudate volume/total volume (CV/TV), caudate functional volume/total functional volume (CFV/TFV) were calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were used to determine the independent factors and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance.
RESULTS: CV, CFV, CV/TV, CFV/TFV were significantly different in the EV severity study and FVH study (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that CV/TV and ascites were independent predictive factors for severe EV, a predictive model combing those two factors revealed a satisfactory diagnostic performance (area under the curve (AUC), 0.853, 95 %CI 0.797-0.905). Furthermore, CV/TV and the presence of red color sign under endoscopy were found to be independent predictive factors for FVH, and the former showed a better discriminative performance than the latter (AUC, 0.851 vs 0.779).
CONCLUSIONS: CT-derived quantitative parameters of CV, CFV, CV/TV, CFV/TFV may be used as an alternative to endoscopy in predicting severe varices and the risk of bleeding.