An analysis of predictors of long-term cadaveric renal allograft survival.

To determine factors predictive of long-term graft function in patients treated prophylactically with an antilymphocyte antibody, 670 first cadaveric adult renal transplant procedures performed between 1985 and 1991 were reviewed. The actuarial 1- and 5-year patient survival in this group was 95% and 87% respectively, and graft survival was 84% and 70% respectively. The final analysis was based on a study group of 635 patients which excluded 28 patients who lost grafts to early technical failures and 8 patients who were not induced with an antilymphocyte preparation. Multivariate analysis showed that 5-year graft survival was lower in patients with delayed graft function (p = 0.0001), in those who had an acute rejection episode in the first 6 months post-transplant (p = 0.0001), recipients greater than 55 years of age at the time of transplant (p = 0.0001), in patients who were highly sensitized at the time of transplant (p = 0.0331) and, finally, in those who received a graft from an older donor (p = 0.044). The 209 patients with delayed graft function had a 16% lower long-term graft survival than 425 patients with early graft function (62% vs. 78% respectively at 5 years). One or more rejection episodes in the first 6 months post-transplant (329 patients) reduced long-term graft survival by 13% compared to those who did not have a rejection episode (67% vs. 80% respectively at 5 years).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)