Emission factors and driving forces of provincial-level CO2 from electricity production and consumption in China from 2013 to 2020.

China's power sector has significant CO2 emissions, posing a substantial reduction challenge. Current emission reduction measures lack a systematic perspective, failing to adequately consider the primary drivers of emission growth associated with electricity consumption. Most existing driving force analyses overlook the role of electricity consumption and the complexities of the power transmission networks. Furthermore, emission factors, crucial for driving force analyses, often lack timeliness, spatial accuracy, and transparency in accounting. Considering China's diverse regional disparities and varied energy patterns, this study develops a framework for CO2 emission accounting and driving force analyses. It calculates CO2 emission factors for production and consumption in each province for 2020 and uses structural decomposition analysis to identify key factors affecting emissions. Findings indicate a downward trend in CO2 emission factors from 2013 to 2020, but electricity transmission causes significant discrepancies between production and consumption emission factors. GDP growth drives increased emissions, while energy efficiency improvements reduce emissions in some regions. However, the contributions of shifts in energy structure and thermal power cleaning on emission reductions are waning. Based on these insights, the paper offers targeted policy recommendations to guide energy conservation and emission reductions in China's power industry.