Open forum infectious diseases · 2020
Do Stay at Home Orders and Cloth Face Coverings Control COVID-19 in New York City? Results From a SIER Model Based on Real-world Data.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Li Jian, Wang Yuming, Wu Jing, Ai Jing-Wen, Zhang Hao-Cheng, Gamber Michelle, Li Wei, Zhang Wen-Hong, Sun Wen-Jie
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Public health interventions have been implemented to contain the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in New York City. However, the assessment of those interventions-for example, social distancing and cloth face coverings-based on real-world data from published studies is lacking.
METHODS: The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) compartmental model was used to evaluate the effect of social distancing and cloth face coverings on the daily culminative laboratory confirmed cases in New York City (NYC) and COVID-19 transmissibility. The latter was measured by Rt reproduction numbers in 3 phases that were based on 2 interventions implemented during this timeline.
RESULTS: Transmissibility decreased from phase 1 to phase 3. The initial R0 was 4.60 in phase 1 without any intervention. After social distancing, the Rt value was reduced by 68%, while after the mask recommendation, it was further reduced by ~60%.
CONCLUSIONS: Interventions resulted in significant reduction of confirmed case numbers relative to predicted values based on the SEIR model without intervention. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of social distancing and cloth face coverings in slowing down the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in NYC.
METHODS: The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) compartmental model was used to evaluate the effect of social distancing and cloth face coverings on the daily culminative laboratory confirmed cases in New York City (NYC) and COVID-19 transmissibility. The latter was measured by Rt reproduction numbers in 3 phases that were based on 2 interventions implemented during this timeline.
RESULTS: Transmissibility decreased from phase 1 to phase 3. The initial R0 was 4.60 in phase 1 without any intervention. After social distancing, the Rt value was reduced by 68%, while after the mask recommendation, it was further reduced by ~60%.
CONCLUSIONS: Interventions resulted in significant reduction of confirmed case numbers relative to predicted values based on the SEIR model without intervention. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of social distancing and cloth face coverings in slowing down the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in NYC.