A novel discriminant formula for the prompt diagnosis of strangulated bowel obstruction.

PURPOSES: The diagnosis of strangulated bowel obstruction (SBO) is sometimes difficult. We attempted to create and verify a discriminant formula for use as a diagnostic aid for the early diagnosis of SBO.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 97 patients who underwent an operation for SBO from January 2007 to September 2018. First, a discriminant analysis was performed for 73 patients who underwent an operation from January 2007 to December 2015 in order to obtain a formula. Next, we analyzed 34 patients who underwent an operation from January 2016 to September 2018 to verify the formula.

RESULTS

The risk factors for SBO included ascites, signs of preperitoneal irritation, and lactate > 1.16 mmol/L. The discriminant formula is as follows: 1.954 × collection of ascites (1 or 0) + 1.239 × peritoneal irritation sign (1 or 0) + 0.378 × lactate - 2.331 (1: positive, 0: negative). The predictive value was as follows: sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 64.7%; and predictive accuracy, 73.5%. In patients who presented within 24 h of the onset, the sensitivity was 92.3%, the specificity was 75.0%, and the predictive accuracy was 85.7%.

CONCLUSION

Our discriminant formula seems useful for the rapid diagnosis of SBO.