Predicting changes in drug use and treatment entry for local programs: a case study.

Recent sharp decline in treatment admissions by opiate abusers stimulated the conduct of a study designed to provide timely data to treatment system administrators for the next cycle of program and budgetary planning. The process of designing the study involved definition of required study characteristics, review of four categories of drug abuse research, and generation of seven locally relevant hypotheses. Interviews were conducted with 335 heroin adicts: 196 new admissions to treatment and 139 "street" addicts not currently in treatment. Major findings were a marked reduction in the quality, availability, and price of heroin; very negative perceptions of methadone maintenance, especially by female respondents; decline in heroin popularity and increase in reported use of alcohol, amphetamines, and barbiturates; and differing perceptions of treatment by sex of respondent. Response patterns suggest that users who are not entering treatment are less "strung-out than those entering treatment because of decline in availability and quality of heroin and consequent increased mixing of drugs. The emphasis in the report is on the conduct of a study which can be timely, feasible, and useful to local planners. The study weaknesses and recommended remedies are discussed, as well as the characteristics which made the findings immediately useful to administrators and planners.