Delayed insulin secretion response during an OGTT is associated with an increased risk for incidence of diabetes in NGT subjects.

AIMS: This study aimed to assess whether insulin secretion patterns during oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) could predict future type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Chinese normal glucose tolerance (NGT) subjects.

METHODS

A total of 558 NGT, 419 newly diagnosed impaired glucose tolerance, and 694 newly diagnosed T2D patients were assessed. NGT subjects were grouped based on the time of peak insulin secretion during a 3h- OGTT; at 30min (InsP30), 60min (InsP60), 120min (InsP120), or 180min (InsP180), respectively. NGT subjects were followed up for an average duration of 5.58±1.08years. Beta-cell function was estimated by Stumvoll insulin secretion.

RESULTS

The InsP120 and InsP180 groups had lower Stumvoll first-phase insulin secretion levels compared with InsP30. At 5.58±1.08years, 25 (5.39%) NGT subjects had developed T2D. The cumulative incidence rate of diabetes was higher in the InsP120 and InsP180 groups (8.94%), compared with InsP30 (1.48%) (P<0.05). The adjusted relative risk for incident diabetes was 7.30 (95% CI: 1.53-34.72) times higher in the InsP120 and InsP180 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

NGT subjects with late insulin responses had defective early insulin secretion and were at higher risk of developing diabetes. Insulin secretion patterns could be a useful T2D predictor in the Chinese population.