Simulation of temporal and spatial change of N2O emissions in the Yangtze River Delta.

A biogeochemical model (DNDC) is combined with a plant ecological model to estimate N2O emission from rice paddy fields in the Yangtze River Delta region. The model is driven by local meteorological, soil, and physiological data and is validated for 1999 and 2000 at a site in the region, which showed that the simulated N2O emissions agree fairly well with the observed data. This adds some confidence in the estimated N2O emissions during 1950 and 2000 in the Hangzhou Region. A significant correlation between the N2O emissions and the population for the Hangzhou Region is found, which is due to a combination of increased application of fertilizers and cultivated area. Such a correlation can not be established for the whole Yangtze River Delta region when the data of both urban and rural areas are included. However, when the data from the heavily urbanized areas are excluded, a significant correlation between population and N2O emissions emerges. The results show clearly that both the temporal and the spatial N2O emissions have significant positive relationship with population under traditional farming practice. These results have implications for suitable mitigation options towards a sustainable agriculture and environment in this region.