Медицинская библиотека · Lancet (London, England) · 2017

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.

Shi Ting, McAllister David A, O'Brien Katherine L, Simoes Eric A F, Madhi Shabir A, Gessner Bradford D, Polack Fernando P, Balsells Evelyn, Acacio Sozinho, Aguayo Claudia, Alassani Issifou, Ali Asad, Antonio Martin, Awasthi Shally, Awori Juliet O, Azziz-Baumgartner Eduardo, Baggett Henry C, Baillie Vicky L, Balmaseda Angel, Barahona Alfredo, Basnet Sudha, Bassat Quique, Basualdo Wilma, Bigogo Godfrey, Bont Louis, Breiman Robert F, Brooks W Abdullah, Broor Shobha, Bruce Nigel, Bruden Dana, Buchy Philippe, Campbell Stuart, Carosone-Link Phyllis, Chadha Mandeep, Chipeta James, Chou Monidarin, Clara Wilfrido, Cohen Cheryl, de Cuellar Elizabeth, Dang Duc-Anh, Dash-Yandag Budragchaagiin, Deloria-Knoll Maria, Dherani Mukesh, Eap Tekchheng, Ebruke Bernard E, Echavarria Marcela, de Freitas Lázaro Emediato Carla Cecília, Fasce Rodrigo A, Feikin Daniel R, Feng Luzhao, Gentile Angela, Gordon Aubree, Goswami Doli, Goyet Sophie, Groome Michelle, Halasa Natasha, Hirve Siddhivinayak, Homaira Nusrat, Howie Stephen R C, Jara Jorge, Jroundi Imane, Kartasasmita Cissy B, Khuri-Bulos Najwa, Kotloff Karen L, Krishnan Anand, Libster Romina, Lopez Olga, Lucero Marilla G, Lucion Florencia, Lupisan Socorro P, Marcone Debora N, McCracken John P, Mejia Mario, Moisi Jennifer C, Montgomery Joel M, Moore David P, Moraleda Cinta, Moyes Jocelyn, Munywoki Patrick, Mutyara Kuswandewi, Nicol Mark P, Nokes D James, Nymadawa Pagbajabyn, da Costa Oliveira Maria Tereza, Oshitani Histoshi, Pandey Nitin, Paranhos-Baccalà Gláucia, Phillips Lia N, Picot Valentina Sanchez, Rahman Mustafizur, Rakoto-Andrianarivelo Mala, Rasmussen Zeba A, Rath Barbara A, Robinson Annick, Romero Candice, Russomando Graciela, Salimi Vahid, Sawatwong Pongpun, Scheltema Nienke, Schweiger Brunhilde, Scott J Anthony G, Seidenberg Phil, Shen Kunling, Singleton Rosalyn, Sotomayor Viviana, Strand Tor A, Sutanto Agustinus, Sylla Mariam, Tapia Milagritos D, Thamthitiwat Somsak, Thomas Elizabeth D, Tokarz Rafal, Turner Claudia, Venter Marietjie, Waicharoen Sunthareeya, Wang Jianwei, Watthanaworawit Wanitda, Yoshida Lay-Myint, Yu Hongjie, Zar Heather J, Campbell Harry, Nair Harish, RSV Global Epidemiology Network

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Аннотация

BACKGROUND

We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015.

METHODS

We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity.

FINDINGS: We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population.

INTERPRETATION: Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group.

FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Для цитирования: Shi Ting, McAllister David A, O'Brien Katherine L, Simoes Eric A F, Madhi Shabir A, Gessner Bradford D, Polack Fernando P, Balsells Evelyn, Acacio Sozinho, Aguayo Claudia, Alassani Issifou, Ali Asad, Antonio Martin, Awasthi Shally, Awori Juliet O, Azziz-Baumgartner Eduardo, Baggett Henry C, Baillie Vicky L, Balmaseda Angel, Barahona Alfredo, Basnet Sudha, Bassat Quique, Basualdo Wilma, Bigogo Godfrey, Bont Louis, Breiman Robert F, Brooks W Abdullah, Broor Shobha, Bruce Nigel, Bruden Dana, Buchy Philippe, Campbell Stuart, Carosone-Link Phyllis, Chadha Mandeep, Chipeta James, Chou Monidarin, Clara Wilfrido, Cohen Cheryl, de Cuellar Elizabeth, Dang Duc-Anh, Dash-Yandag Budragchaagiin, Deloria-Knoll Maria, Dherani Mukesh, Eap Tekchheng, Ebruke Bernard E, Echavarria Marcela, de Freitas Lázaro Emediato Carla Cecília, Fasce Rodrigo A, Feikin Daniel R, Feng Luzhao, Gentile Angela, Gordon Aubree, Goswami Doli, Goyet Sophie, Groome Michelle, Halasa Natasha, Hirve Siddhivinayak, Homaira Nusrat, Howie Stephen R C, Jara Jorge, Jroundi Imane, Kartasasmita Cissy B, Khuri-Bulos Najwa, Kotloff Karen L, Krishnan Anand, Libster Romina, Lopez Olga, Lucero Marilla G, Lucion Florencia, Lupisan Socorro P, Marcone Debora N, McCracken John P, Mejia Mario, Moisi Jennifer C, Montgomery Joel M, Moore David P, Moraleda Cinta, Moyes Jocelyn, Munywoki Patrick, Mutyara Kuswandewi, Nicol Mark P, Nokes D James, Nymadawa Pagbajabyn, da Costa Oliveira Maria Tereza, Oshitani Histoshi, Pandey Nitin, Paranhos-Baccalà Gláucia, Phillips Lia N, Picot Valentina Sanchez, Rahman Mustafizur, Rakoto-Andrianarivelo Mala, Rasmussen Zeba A, Rath Barbara A, Robinson Annick, Romero Candice, Russomando Graciela, Salimi Vahid, Sawatwong Pongpun, Scheltema Nienke, Schweiger Brunhilde, Scott J Anthony G, Seidenberg Phil, Shen Kunling, Singleton Rosalyn, Sotomayor Viviana, Strand Tor A, Sutanto Agustinus, Sylla Mariam, Tapia Milagritos D, Thamthitiwat Somsak, Thomas Elizabeth D, Tokarz Rafal, Turner Claudia, Venter Marietjie, Waicharoen Sunthareeya, Wang Jianwei, Watthanaworawit Wanitda, Yoshida Lay-Myint, Yu Hongjie, Zar Heather J, Campbell Harry, Nair Harish, RSV Global Epidemiology Network. Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.. Lancet (London, England). 2017. DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30938-8.

Предметные рубрики MeSH

Child, Preschool Developing Countries Global Health Hospital Mortality Hospitalization Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn Models, Statistical Respiratory Syncytial Viruses Respiratory Tract Infections Risk Factors

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Аннотация

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METHODS

Предметные рубрики MeSH

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