The oral disposition index is a strong predictor of incident diabetes in Asian Indian prediabetic men.

AIMS: In this analysis, we sought to examine the prospective association of the disposition index (DIo) derived from oral glucose tolerance test with incident diabetes in Asian Indian men with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT).

METHODS

These post hoc analyses used data from a 2-year prospective study in primary prevention of diabetes using lifestyle intervention among 517 men with IGT. All the participants received standard lifestyle advice at baseline. The surrogate insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion measures were tested for their hyperbolic relationship. Predictive associations of various surrogate measures with incident diabetes were determined using receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

The combination of total area under the curve of insulin-to-glucose ratio (AUCinsulin/glucose) and Matsuda's insulin sensitivity index was the best equation to depict DIo [β: -0.954 (95 % CI -1.015 to -0.893)] compared to other measures tested in this cohort. There was an inverse association between change in DIo at the final follow-up and development of incident diabetes. Among the surrogate insulin measures studied, DIo [AUC (0.717 (95 % CI 0.675-0.756))] as a composite measure was superior than other surrogate indices.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the surrogate indices studied, DIo was the best measure associated with incident diabetes.