The prediction of the chance to conceive in subfertile couples.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a model that can predict the chance to conceive spontaneously in subfertile couples.

DESIGN

In a cohort study, a consecutive series of patients consulting infertility was followed up. We related information from previous history, physical examination, postcoital tests (PCT), semen analyses, and sperm penetration meter tests with the occurrence of a spontaneous pregnancy.

SETTING

Fertility center in a university hospital.

PATIENTS: Nine hundred ninety-six couples consulting for infertility due to cervical hostility, male subfertility, or unexplained infertility.

INTERVENTIONS: None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Time between intake and occurrence of the first spontaneous pregnancy.

RESULTS

Information from the previous history (duration of infertility, primary or secondary female infertility, age of the woman, fertility problems in male's family), the percentage motile sperm in the first semen analysis, and the result of the first PCT are sufficient to predict the chance to conceive. A pocket chart is presented for easy use of the model.

CONCLUSIONS

With a limited amount of diagnostic information, the chance to conceive spontaneously can be predicted.