Journal of safety research · 2021
Toward better measurement of traffic injuries - Comparison of anatomical injury measures in predicting the clinical outcomes in motorcycle crashes.
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Wali Behram, Ahmad Numan, Khattak Asad J
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Little evidence exists in the literature regarding the discrimination power of better anatomical injury measures in differentiating clinical outcomes in motorcycle crashes. Furthermore, multiple injuries to different body parts of the rider are seldom analyzed. This study focuses on comparing anatomical injury measures such as the injury severity score (ISS) and the new injury severity score (NISS) in capturing injuries of multiple injured riders and examining the discriminatory capabilities of the ISS and NISS in predicting clinical outcomes post motorcycle crash.
METHODS: The study harnessed unique and comprehensive injury data on 322 riders from the US DOT Federal Highway Administration's Motorcycle Crash Causation Study (MCCS). Detailed exploratory analysis is performed and discrete/ordered statistical models are estimated for three clinical outcomes: mortality risk, trauma risk, and trauma status.
RESULTS: Around 9% of the riders died and 45% of the riders had injuries. Around 36% of the riders were hospitalized, disabled, or institutionalized. While a very strong dependence was found between ISS and NISS, ISS underestimated injuries sustained by riders. Statistical models for mortality risk revealed that a unit increase in the ISS and NISS was correlated with a 1.18 and 1.17 times increase in the odds of mortality, respectively. Moreover, a unit increase in ISS and NISS values was correlated with a higher trauma risk by 1.48 and 1.36 times, respectively. Our analysis reveals that the probability of a rider being hospitalized or disabled/institutionalized increases with an increase in the NISS. Conclusions and practical applications: The NISS exhibits significantly better calibration and discriminatory ability in differentiating survivors and non-survivors and in predicting trauma status - underscoring the importance of accounting for microscopic body-part-level injury data in motorcycle crashes. We consider that compared with the KABCO scale, the ISS and NISS are more nuanced scores that can better measure the overall injury intensity and can lead to more targeted countermeasures.
METHODS: The study harnessed unique and comprehensive injury data on 322 riders from the US DOT Federal Highway Administration's Motorcycle Crash Causation Study (MCCS). Detailed exploratory analysis is performed and discrete/ordered statistical models are estimated for three clinical outcomes: mortality risk, trauma risk, and trauma status.
RESULTS: Around 9% of the riders died and 45% of the riders had injuries. Around 36% of the riders were hospitalized, disabled, or institutionalized. While a very strong dependence was found between ISS and NISS, ISS underestimated injuries sustained by riders. Statistical models for mortality risk revealed that a unit increase in the ISS and NISS was correlated with a 1.18 and 1.17 times increase in the odds of mortality, respectively. Moreover, a unit increase in ISS and NISS values was correlated with a higher trauma risk by 1.48 and 1.36 times, respectively. Our analysis reveals that the probability of a rider being hospitalized or disabled/institutionalized increases with an increase in the NISS. Conclusions and practical applications: The NISS exhibits significantly better calibration and discriminatory ability in differentiating survivors and non-survivors and in predicting trauma status - underscoring the importance of accounting for microscopic body-part-level injury data in motorcycle crashes. We consider that compared with the KABCO scale, the ISS and NISS are more nuanced scores that can better measure the overall injury intensity and can lead to more targeted countermeasures.